tariffs

U.S. inflation eased slightly in September while tariffs and a weak job market continue to weigh on households. This article examines how these forces intersect and what they signal for American consumers and the broader economy.

Early corporate earnings season underscores a widening divide in U.S. consumer spending. Affluent households are splurging on cars, sneakers and everyday luxuries, powering profits at companies like Coca‑Cola, 3M and General Motors, while middle‑ and lower‑income consumers continue to pinch pennies amid high inflation and mortgage rates. With nearly nine in ten reporting S&P 500 firms beating expectations, markets remain buoyant, but the government shutdown’s data blackout and persistent tariff pressures leave policymakers guessing about the broader economy’s health.

The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book paints a picture of an economy that is flat overall but weakening in important areas. Companies are trimming staff, consumer spending is slipping, and tariffs are pushing prices higher. At the same time, Wall Street banks are reporting blowout profits, investment in artificial intelligence is booming, and higher-income households are keeping retailers afloat. With official data frozen by a government shutdown, these anecdotes carry extra weight as policymakers weigh their next moves.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that the U.S. economy sits between faster growth and a weakening labour market, while the International Monetary Fund cautioned of a potential "disorderly" global market correction. A U.S. government shutdown has cut off official economic data, leaving global policymakers to fly blind; trade tensions pushed Wall Street’s fear gauge higher, and French luxury group LVMH surprised investors with a rare sales uptick.